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06 February 17

Risk Analysis for a Synchro-modal Supply Chain

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Inter-modality increases the complexity of supply chains. By linking of organizations risk effects within the chain be transferred to other members, knock-on effects are possible and the reliability of the whole supply chain depends on its weakest link. Therefore, risk management is becoming more and more important. Managing the supply chain reactively by reviewing risk indicators, such as delays in transit, is a negative way to manage and mitigate against risk. The EU project SYNCHRO-NET will demonstrate how powerful a SYNCHRO-modal supply chain eco-Net can catalyse the uptake of synchro-modality. A new holistic concept will enable active inclusion of risk assessments by cooperation of different modules. With help of a “Real-time Optimisation” module paths for a mission are evaluated and can be adapted to current situations during the realisation. Depending on the risk attitude of a specific user a “Supply Chain De-stressing” module modifies the paths with the aim to de-stress the supply chain. For each possible path different KPIs are provided as basis for the user’s decision. Beside “classical” logistics KPIs (e.g. cost, time, etc.) a “Risk Analysis and Optimisation” module will provide an additional risk based KPI. To determine such novel risk measure a Monte-Carlo rollout approach is used. In particular, by running through numerous random scenarios future developments of a decision are considered. Finally, a decision for one path is done by the user itself.


Authors: Holfeld D., Simroth A., Tadei R.

Conference: 28th European Conference on Operational Research (EURO2016), Poznan, Poland, July 3-7

Year of publication 2016